The work builds on a rapidly accumulating literature and evolving methods (e.g., Xiao et al., 2021). In this Stage 1 Registered Report, Xiao (2022) has constructed a careful plan for testing whether the “ban” in Belgium has made the local mobile game market distinct in terms of paid loot boxes. Mobile games that monetize with paid loot boxes in Belgium should thus apply for a gambling license, and companies should generally not offer paid loot boxes to local underage players at all.

Belgium is one of the few countries that have officially interpreted loot box monetization to widely belong under gambling regulation.

Because the design structures of loot boxes vary and the value of their virtual rewards is not always clear-cut, many countries now struggle how to deal with them legally and in practice (see Drummond et al., 2020). randomised monetization methods that are similar to lottery-type gambling, have become prominent features of contemporary gaming (e.g., Macey & Bujić, 2022). The 100 highest-grossing iPhone games in Belgium will be analysed to identify their Apple Age Rating and the presence/absence of paid loot boxes. The loot box prevalence rate in Belgium, where the ban applies, should be lower than previously observed in other Western countries where no effective loot box regulatory restrictions have been applied. Virtually no video game company should have continued to implement paid loot boxes in Belgium following the ban, particularly amongst games deemed suitable for underage children. The effectiveness of this ban at influencing the compliance behaviour of video game companies (and, by implication, consumers’, including children’s, exposure to and consumer protection from loot boxes) will be assessed. Citing consumer protection concerns, the Belgian Gaming Commission opined that such mechanics constitute gambling under existing law and effectively ‘banned’ loot boxes by enforcing gambling law and threatening criminal prosecution of non-compliant companies implementing paid loot boxes without a gambling licence. Loot boxes are conceptually and psychologically similar to gambling, and loot box expenditure is positively correlated with self-reported problem gambling severity. Loot boxes in video games are gambling-like mechanics that players buy to obtain randomised rewards of varying value.

Belgium says loot boxes are gambling